Tuesday, May 22, 2012

UEFA Euro Cup 2012 Predictions: Group A


Reliving the tradition of the old times we now turn to soccer.  What’s that?  Soccer is for pussies?  Tell that to back bone plate on my right heel that was separated from the ball of my foot when I was a wee lad (OK, 13).  The game is far more physical than anyone who has never played it at a level higher than “recreational coed city level where everyone gets trophy” thinks.  On the flip side, if you are correcting me by saying “it’s football (or futbol),” speak American: God’s language.

International soccer plays well in the US.  Go ahead and hate…  but even the Women’s World Cup did reasonably well in the ratings despite not playing at optimal sporting times.  It drew an 8.6 rating on ESPN (whatever that means) versus the following day’s British Open (a 2.6 rating).  Haters, keep hating (add deadspin Manchester derby reax link) and remember how twitter works:  if you have a word, even if you hate said word, in your tweet, you are going to help it trend upward.  ESPN is going to broadcast games, during the summer, during daytime television.  They’re going to do it on ESPN2, too…  MWAHAHA pitiful non-soccer loving sports fans…  HOW WILL YOU SURVIVE THE DAY WITHOUT 10 STRAIGHT HOURS OF SPORTSCENTER!?  HOW WILL YOU BE ABLE TO COPE WITHOUT HERM EDWARDS TALKING ABOUT WHY COACHING IS THE NFL IS HURRRR DURRRRR?  SE ARRODILLAN ANTE SUS GOBERNANTES DEPORTIVOS!

Group A:

Greece
Ranking:  14
How they qualified:  Qualifying Group F Winner
All things considered, Greece played very well in qualifying.  They only surrendered 5 goals in 10 qualifying games and didn’t lose once.  But just like most things in Greece (/geopolitics slam), they were basically handed everything.  Greece played, by far, the easiest qualifying group.  Other teams in Group F:  Latvia, Georgia and Malta.  Yes, the dot in the middle of the Mediterranean kind of near Italy is big enough to have a soccer field (Malta) and if you thought Georgia was our Georgia, you can show yourself the door (click the X in the top right of your browser).  Croatia and Israel also were in the group, but basically speaking, Greece’s job was to undergo cellular respiration and they’d win the group.  They did and here we are.

American Sports Team They Are Most Like:  Chicago White Sox.  Embarrassingly bad for decades in a row, randomly won a championship very unexpectedly (EURO 2004) followed by mediocrity ever since.

How will they fare?
The Greeks looked good qualifying, but again, it was a bad group to judge their real worth.  Other than 2004, the sample size of Greece at the international level is small and terribly skewed towards a comedic lack of anything resembling success.  In 2004, they stunned everyone by winning the whole thing… especially by beating Portugal, the host nation, in the final.  This is unlikely to happen, but then again, look at the group.  Poland is a doormat and you never know which Russia and Czech Republic will show up.  Greece’s range of success ranges from winning the tournament to falling in to bottomless pit on a team building exercise.  Instead of more speculation, we'll just show this.  

Russia
Ranking:  11
How they qualified:  Qualifying Group B Winner
Russia is the most metal country ever.  You think your country is messed up, go look at Russia’s history.  Sure, the French Revolution changed continental European politics for centuries by tearing down their own society inverting the structure of power for the common man.  But, the October Revolution led to their country immediately pulling out of a massive war with a 1,500 mile front just so they go fight themselves in a breathless, and very uncivil, civil war where the average man had no idea who he was for/against and the winners only emerged because everyone who could fight was either dead or practically dead.  The celebration for winning?  20 years of war on its people followed by 5 years against Germany and a homestretch of 50 years against everyone else in the world.  Is Russia the most metal country of all time? Yes.  (Some countries remodel old industrial apartments with bulldozers, Russia uses unexplained gas explosions).  Anyway, Russia qualified by subduing Armenia, Slovakia and Macedonia… something they were accustomed to doing after 45 years of practice.

American Sports Team They Are Most Like:  Cincinnati Reds.  Favorite color is red, scary powerful in the 70s, disappeared in the mid 90s but is slowly emerging as a power yet again.  Team owners used to have a lot in common:  corrupt, profane, drunk and completely terrifying to public  when  they realize that who is in charge.

How will they fare?
Like Greece, this could go either way.  We don’t know which Russia will show up.  Russia has a history of being reasonably good at soccer, but not explosively good.  They won the 1960 EURO Cup, but that and a ruble will buy you nothing.  Right now they have a strong defense (gave up 4 goals in qualifying) and some solid strikers who can score.  Roman Pavlyuchenko is approximately Considering Poland is almost a mortal lock not to do well, it’ll be a three way between the Russians, Greeks and Czechs.  If that’s the case, Russia just needs to not lose twice and they are probably clear to the next round.

Poland
Ranking (for April 2012):  65
How they qualified:  Host Country
Last time Europe came over to Poland’s for a party, it got a little crazy.  Germany came over before the party was supposed to start while double fisting handles of Jack, Russia stormed over when it saw that Germany was already there doing kegstands and whatnot but tripped over Finland for a while before it got there and England was like “Yo we’re trying sleep over here” so Germany was like “Nah, bro party is everywhere” and took the party to Holland and Belgium and France and then Italy was like “Party time!” except Italy was like the nerdy kid who absolutely didn’t know how to party.  Anyway the party didn’t end America Fuck Yeah’d itself to Africa first while partying the fuck out of Japan’s neighborhood and then we partied all the way through Italy, France and brought the party to Germany even though by that point Germany was passed out with their face in the toilet and Russia was partying in Germany’s backyard.  Like all great parties, millions were lost in the process.  So… party at Poland’s place?  Yup.  Poland qualified because it is one of the host countries (along with Ukraine).  If it didn’t get that courtesy, they would have been torched in the qualifying process.

American Sports Team They Are Most Like:  Sacramento Kings.  Completely irrelevant for years, no hope making it to the playoffs.  Long tradition of superior state rivals dominating them since inception.

How will they fare?
Traditionally, Poland has been swallowed by the success of the Germans and Russia, making it very difficult to succeed in a brutal European climate.  Traditionally, Poland’s SOCCER TEAM has been swallowed by the success of the Germans and Russians, making it very impossible to succeed in a brutal European climate.  Consider this, Lucas Podolski is a Polish born player with German roots.  Rather than be a national hero, but lose all the time, Podolski plays for Germany… where they win at everything.  FIFA has no rule to stop this because all you need is to have some kind of roots in a country and then you can play there.  Now imagine Poland’s problem even more when you consider Poland’s history is one filled with it changing colors, locations and the always interesting parlor trick:  the disappearing act.  If you are a skilled soccer player in Poland, you probably are of mixed roots and thus can go follow your roots elsewhere.  With that in mind, Poland stands no chance of winning and barring a miracle of sorts, will be gone immediately.
               

Czech Republic
Ranking:  26
How they qualified:  Playoff Winner
If you don’t win your group in EURO Cup qualifying, you just have to finish in second in your group.  Seeing as how the Czechs were put in the same group as Spain, all they have to do was beat the other teams and they’d make it to the qualifying playoffs.  Considering all they had to do was beat Liechtenstein, Scotland and Lithuania, the Czechs cruised to the playoff round where they flattened Montenegro.  It's not entirely shocking that this happened because with a goalie like Petr Cech, you always stand a chance...  as long as he has the beach ball with him, of course.  BEACH BALL FOR ENGLISH PRIME MINISTER!

American Sports Team They Are Most Like:  The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.  Occasional modest success in the 80s followed by a name change in the 90s which saw a slight rise in stature.  Known to collapse down the stretch when it matters (gave up a lead and an extra time golden goal to lose to Germany in the 1996 Euro Final).


How will they fare?
Truthfully, the Czech Republic is benefiting from being the easiest group.  Like Russia, we’re not 100% sure what’s going to happen with this team.  The Czechs are surprisingly competent at soccer and have some of the best young players in the world:  Vaclav Kadlec is the truth, yo!  Following patterns, every other EURO tournament brings success.  1996:  runner-up.  2000:  out first round.  2004:  semi-finals.  2008:  out first round.  Having a probably free victory against Poland will help, so it’ll depend on Greece and Russia’s fortunes and if you’re a Czech fan, you’ll be rooting for a scoring draw between them.

Predictions:
Greece                                  7 Points
Czech Republic                    6 points
Russia                                  4 points
Poland                                  0 Points

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