The Longest Awaited Coronation Since the United Kingdom

Posted by Iroquois Plisken

Having played around with the NBA Playoff Predictor on ESPN for a time (with it being surprisingly cooperative), I got a sense of what the numbers (at least pre-playoff numbers) are saying about the 6 possible NBA Finals matches. To wit,

The Ratings Nightmare - ORL/PHX - 77% win percentage / 23% win percentage
The Rematch - ORL/LAL - 57 / 43
The Underdog Special - BOS/PHX - 36/64
The Two Years Ago Rematch - BOS/LAL - 36/64
The Curselifter - CLE/PHX - 64/36
The Ratings Bonanza - CLE/LAL - 60/40

A couple of things jump out at me:

1. These have to be pre-playoff numbers, even though the odds are continually updated with every passing game. You really expect me to believe that the Suns have a marginal chance with the way they're playing?

2. Steve Nash wants to eat your brains.
(Note: Picture only altered slightly.)

3. Cleveland must be a better team than they showed last night, which is what I mainly want to discuss.

By now, you surely fall into a camp about the "LeBacle". You know, the game yesterday where LeBron looked human and we all sorta felt bad for him, but not really because a) you're either an opposing team fan whose team may in some way benefit from Cleveland's absence in the playoffs or b) he's made a ton more money and is way more successful than you in every way already.

Myself, I fall into A. Or so I thought. If LeBron is as badly hurt as his performance showed me yesterday, then maybe it's more advantageous to meet the Cavs in a rematch. Mo Williams is providing about as much resistance as a turnstile right now at the PG spot, where Jameer has been dynamic so far in the postseason, a stark contrast to facing Rajon Rondo, who (while talented) has learned well from his days as a Kentucky Wildcat and Boston Celtic in becoming a world-class punk. More on that point here.

However, Boston's due to decline at some point. Orlando has a counter for Pierce and Allen, if Vince decides to show up. Perhaps the only more bullish C in the league would be opposite Dwight (Perkins). There's considerably more depth on the bench than last year. Jameer is effective enough on D to slow Rondo considerably.

Point is, Orlando is looking good to make a return trip to the Finals, no matter who is standing in the way. 27-3 since March 1, 14 game win streak, 8 playoff game win streak. There's lots to like about this team. All 5 starters have yet to show up in the same game and they've got answers for the adversity they've yet to face. I like them to win it as much as the numbers do.

I confess I don't know enough about the West Coast teams remaining. I know the Lakers were looking like garbage for a time and put it together against an overmatched Utah squad (who played LIGHTS OUT in that round). Phoenix finally got past that persistent roadblock known as San Antonio (the last night of the Spurs dynasty) and generally looks like a championship caliber team.

For the record, I think we get the Ratings Nightmare matchup in the Finals. What that indicates is that I, like many others, jumped the gun in giving Cleveland that long-awaited championship at the trade deadline. I think the thing that is most surprising is not LeBron's injury (alleged or otherwise) but in how Antawn Jamison (the big acquisition) has wilted more than Vince Carter did (is?). His numbers look good, not great, but his best game came in the Cavaliers blowout, when the outcome of the game wasn't in doubt. In other games, he's been putting up an average of 10 points, 6 boards, and 4 fouls. Not good for the supposed 2nd option.

At any rate, be sure to tune in to Game 6 on Thursday. I fully expect the Cavs to win, get back to Cleveland, and then get kicked in the balls for a crushing presumed end to the LeBron era.

Shaq Goes Down For A Bit

Posted by Iroquois Plisken

Perhaps Stan was a shade hasty in proclaiming the Cavs the team to beat. At least for a couple of months, Shaquille O'Neal will be sidelined with a bent up thumb. If you weren't watching the Cavs/Celts tilt last week, Glen Davis (whom I refuse to address by nickname; it is just as irritating now as it was when he was at LSU) fouled Shaq kinda hard on the way up and came down on his shooting hand. A Celtics player playing rough and having the foul downplayed? Why, this has never happened! Surely, just an oversight by the ref; he must have been new. To be fair to Davis, it wasn't deliberate or anything, just some good old fashioned hard contact that should have drawn a foul. It wasn't like he threw someone into the scorer's table.

Nevertheless, this is rough for the Cavaliers. Antawn Jamison has not shown a lot of expediency getting acquainted with his new team, and the Cavalier's favorite lineup (as opposed to best?) is now missing its enforcer. The awkward chemistry issues will be present yet again when (if?) Shaq returns to the Cavs. You would think it wouldn't take long to adjust into the lineup for Cleveland because Jamison played with a C who was a steady defensive presence and had cranked up the offense for the season (Brendan Haywood), which sounds like the renewed Shaquille O'Neal this season, but it's not like LeBron James was Caron Butler or anything. Tawn could always do what the rest of the team does and just watch James play.

Cleveland doesn't appear to be in any danger of losing the top spot in the East either. As of now, they are 6 games ahead of Orlando for the top spot, and nearly 10 ahead of both Atlanta and Boston. Where this could get interesting is the overall playoff seeding, which determines HCA in the Finals. As of now, Cleveland only holds a 1 game lead over the Lake Show for the top seed in the playoffs, which seems especially vulnerable right now. However, the LAL have a fairly tough schedule until March 22nd (the first day that Cleveland can resign Zydrunas Ilgauskas), with 6 road games, the only tough one being @ Orlando this upcoming Sunday. Nevertheless, road games are always kind of a crapshoot and you never know.

Fortunately, Cleveland's schedule up until the 22nd features only two Cs they should really have trouble with: Tim Duncan (on the 8th) and Kendrick Perkins (on the 14th). They also might have trouble with Brook Lopez (NJN) later this week, but it's the Nets. Because they possess such considerable depth at PF , they should be able to withstand any challenge at PF (notably, Chicago with the resurgent Taj Gibson and Indiana, with Troy Murphy). Cleveland will also have Shaq ready for the Lakers and Orlando, as they only face Orlando once before the playoffs. If everything stays as it is, Orlando (as the 2 seed) would not see Cleveland again until the East Finals and the Lakers the NBA Finals. That's the good news.

The Ilgauskas buyout was (in hindsight) timed perfectly, not that there is any implication of collusion. The Shaq surgery has the potential to be a boon for the Cavs because of the rest his knees will get. Those Clevelanders who want LBJ to stay at home should be counting their lucky stars (for now) because this could be a blessing in disguise in King James' quest for coronation.