The Longest Awaited Coronation Since the United Kingdom

Posted by Iroquois Plisken

Having played around with the NBA Playoff Predictor on ESPN for a time (with it being surprisingly cooperative), I got a sense of what the numbers (at least pre-playoff numbers) are saying about the 6 possible NBA Finals matches. To wit,

The Ratings Nightmare - ORL/PHX - 77% win percentage / 23% win percentage
The Rematch - ORL/LAL - 57 / 43
The Underdog Special - BOS/PHX - 36/64
The Two Years Ago Rematch - BOS/LAL - 36/64
The Curselifter - CLE/PHX - 64/36
The Ratings Bonanza - CLE/LAL - 60/40

A couple of things jump out at me:

1. These have to be pre-playoff numbers, even though the odds are continually updated with every passing game. You really expect me to believe that the Suns have a marginal chance with the way they're playing?

2. Steve Nash wants to eat your brains.
(Note: Picture only altered slightly.)

3. Cleveland must be a better team than they showed last night, which is what I mainly want to discuss.

By now, you surely fall into a camp about the "LeBacle". You know, the game yesterday where LeBron looked human and we all sorta felt bad for him, but not really because a) you're either an opposing team fan whose team may in some way benefit from Cleveland's absence in the playoffs or b) he's made a ton more money and is way more successful than you in every way already.

Myself, I fall into A. Or so I thought. If LeBron is as badly hurt as his performance showed me yesterday, then maybe it's more advantageous to meet the Cavs in a rematch. Mo Williams is providing about as much resistance as a turnstile right now at the PG spot, where Jameer has been dynamic so far in the postseason, a stark contrast to facing Rajon Rondo, who (while talented) has learned well from his days as a Kentucky Wildcat and Boston Celtic in becoming a world-class punk. More on that point here.

However, Boston's due to decline at some point. Orlando has a counter for Pierce and Allen, if Vince decides to show up. Perhaps the only more bullish C in the league would be opposite Dwight (Perkins). There's considerably more depth on the bench than last year. Jameer is effective enough on D to slow Rondo considerably.

Point is, Orlando is looking good to make a return trip to the Finals, no matter who is standing in the way. 27-3 since March 1, 14 game win streak, 8 playoff game win streak. There's lots to like about this team. All 5 starters have yet to show up in the same game and they've got answers for the adversity they've yet to face. I like them to win it as much as the numbers do.

I confess I don't know enough about the West Coast teams remaining. I know the Lakers were looking like garbage for a time and put it together against an overmatched Utah squad (who played LIGHTS OUT in that round). Phoenix finally got past that persistent roadblock known as San Antonio (the last night of the Spurs dynasty) and generally looks like a championship caliber team.

For the record, I think we get the Ratings Nightmare matchup in the Finals. What that indicates is that I, like many others, jumped the gun in giving Cleveland that long-awaited championship at the trade deadline. I think the thing that is most surprising is not LeBron's injury (alleged or otherwise) but in how Antawn Jamison (the big acquisition) has wilted more than Vince Carter did (is?). His numbers look good, not great, but his best game came in the Cavaliers blowout, when the outcome of the game wasn't in doubt. In other games, he's been putting up an average of 10 points, 6 boards, and 4 fouls. Not good for the supposed 2nd option.

At any rate, be sure to tune in to Game 6 on Thursday. I fully expect the Cavs to win, get back to Cleveland, and then get kicked in the balls for a crushing presumed end to the LeBron era.