No doubt adding to Slate's documented ire of overanalyzing the NFL during the offseason, here I am with some more tinder for the fire. I would posit, though, that talking about free agency on the day it opens up isn't really just ESPN filling up airspace. This is a potentially historic offseason for the NFL. It is the first year in quite some time that there is no salary cap. Naturally, this leads to people freaking out. A sample conversation with that dimwit that everyone knows who is prone to overreaction:
You: Hey friend, did you see free agency opened up today? It's an uncapped year.
Your Stupid and Smelly Friend: OH MY GOD UNCAPPED YEAR FOOTBALL WILL BE RUINED THAT SAME WAY BASEBALL IS RUINED TOO MANY SUPERPOWERHOUSE TEAMS LIKE TEH YANKEES AND THE RED SOCKS AND THE YANKESE WILL MAKE THE NFL BORING.
You: Mmm hmm. Well, that's...very good...for a first try. You know what? I have a ball. Perhaps you'd like to bounce it?
First things first, your friend talks loudly and in run-on sentences. Second, he's prone to repeating things. Third, baseball is not ruined for having an uncapped salary system (although there are deficiencies in the system; I'd start with not being allowed to pocket shared revenue).
But you, the suave and debonair reader of PLS, know that there are other factors in play here. First (and this can and will be overstated by ESPN) is obviously the economy. If this morning's trends are any indication of what to come, you'll have the same mix of things that happens in baseball: a few teams, once constrained by terrible franchise crippling decisions or inability or willingness to spend top dollar, will go for the gusto. A few will look to shed dead weight. Others still will sit on the sidelines (like my team). Nothing to see here.
Second, nothing really stands to change in terms of actual players being signed, in terms of salaries. I may be alone in this belief, but I believe the salary cap causes teams to act in irrational ways. To analogize, think of it as driving your car on a highway with a hard speed limit, viz. any attempt to exceed the limit is impossible. You're stuck in traffic behind some cars that are going about 8-10 MPH under the limit, but you, the normally smarter and more composed driver, know that you could be doing things better. It inevitably become frustrating following these drivers because you know there is room to work but there's just no opportunity to break free. Finally, you have room to your left to pass and, lo and behold, the hard speed limit disappears. What's your first reaction? I would guess that you're going to floor it to pass these slow assholes that have been holding up your inevitable Manifest Destiny to wherever it is you're going.
To borrow a non-NFL example, we can look to the NBA (which lacks a hard cap, but the idea's the same). After years of being crippled (no pun intended) by the Grant Hill contract and burdened by other various failures (Steve Francis), at the end of the 2006-07 season, the Magic finally shed constraints that didn't allow them to spend any money on improving the team except for essentially lateral moves. What was the first thing Orlando did? Ridiculously overpaid Rashard Lewis in a sign-and-trade. Seriously, they paid a max contract (6 yr/$120M) to a non max player, bidding against no one but themselves.
Tying it all back together, just because all of a sudden the NFL teams have a ton of freedom and can ostensibly spend as much as they want may result in a temporary increase in irrational spending, but it likely won't produce any more than your standard stupid contracts. Just for funsies, here's some ridiculously good links to some ridiculously bad contracts, first for baseball and second for basketball @ http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/03/05/the-nbas-68-worst-contracts/ (For some reason, I can't hotlink it from this page). As those links should demonstrate, stupidity in player valuation runs rampant in both capped and uncapped leagues. As noted before, the economy should keep most of the really bad decisions in check.
A couple miscellany heading into your weekend:
- Team Jolly Drank is now 2-0 with a 21-4 demolishing of the previous squad. One guy was so hammered he could barely stand up and was definitely an all-star. In the last inning, when it was apparent the other side was going to lose, Drunky McSwingerson hits a frozen rope to center, which was bobbled. D McS jogs to second and his buddy is pissed and starts yelling. D McS calmly replies, "Bro, we're down 21-4. What I do isn't going to make a difference." I love freshmen.
- I see that Slate introduced the fantasy baseball league. I am offended he calls it an "annoying habit of winning" though. It's not annoying at all (for me, anyway). I can see where it would piss people off that I called my shot by naming my team "3 Year Winner" and won both regular season and playoff crown, even in spite of the legendary A-Rod for Bill Hall/Ryan Zimmerman trade (you can assume that neither Slate nor I were in that deal), which is Slate's favorite argument in favor of democratic vetoes of trades, which might make an interesting point/counterpoint later on.
- In the future, also look for a primer on our baseball terminology as we have quite a few nicknames that will casually tossed around. We'll start with Doug Davis, for example. Doug Davis' name is Doug the Dino.
- Finally, just in case there was ever any doubt in your mind about whether or not what you see is a movie, this car (courtesy of my neighbor) removes any and all doubt.
Enjoy your weekend, everyone.
