Watching a Trainwreck in Real Time

by Slate Quicksilver

Being a Florida Marlins fan, seeing mlb.com's report on Sportscenter that Joe Mauer hasn't resigned with the Twins yet but is "hopeful" that a deal will get done soon or during next offseason set off a 5 bell alarm. That part of the sentence in bold requires a closer inspection, but first, my credentials. I've seen this movie unfold so many times, I can call the script before it even happens. This has happened no less than 15 times with my team, the Florida Marlins (although there are some who apparently think we don't exist). I won't stand for their crimes against the game of baseball, but I am a fan. I was taught to root for your team through thick and thin, and seeing this report about Mauer and the Twins is troubling because I've seen this movie before; and it never ends well.

First off, let's look at the mlb.com part. If this report came out, it is solely done by the Mauer camp. The Twins don't want their poker hand shown to the rest of the world. That hand? A four, six, seven, jack and a king... all off suit. They are strapped for cash, simply put. They have Justin Morneau on board for 8 digits (12.5 mil) and Mauer will unquestionably be an 8 digit man himself. Joe Nathan checks in a 6 million (which he may get paid even if he fishes all season) and Mr. Mauer, himself, cashes in 6.25 million and for some reason Jim Thome is on the ledger for 13 million. Those four gentleman, at the status quo, account for nearly 75% of the Twins team salary (65 million + change). The Twins, in other words, can't take on Mauer and Morneau (and Thome). If anyone tipped the media off, it was a Mauer rep.

Secondly, let's look at the "hopeful" part. All accounts that are in the know agree that Joe Mauer is a stand up guy. He has offered a hometown discount to the Twins and he has made it clear he wants to stay there. Now allow me give you a few names of players who did this for the team I root for: Charles Johnson, Kevin Brown, Al Leiter, Gary Sheffield, Moises Alou, Luis Castillo, Jeff Conine (x2), Preston Wilson, Cliff Floyd, Josh Beckett, AJ Burnett, Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. In fact the only great (yes I called Preston Wilson great... wanna fight about it?) player the Marlins have had in the last 15 years who made no appearance of being "hopeful" that he could stay with the team and give them a discount was Hanley Ramirez, who the Marlins promptly responded by giving him a 5 year 75 million dollar contract. Great players on small market teams all want to stay (or at least say they do) but baseball is a business. If offered a "wowza" contract, Mauer will be gone in half a minute.

Let's finish with the time frame for getting it done. When it gets done is moot. To Mauer, that is. Joe can bide his time... even he signs tomorrow the contract doesn't go in to effect until next year... so monetarily he is ambivalent. But for the Twins, time is oxygen. He will be an unrestricted free agent, but only after a certain date. This means that the Twins are the only ones who can talk to him. This is the ball being shoved into the Twins' court and reminding them about the cloud of impending doom over their heads. That cloud is saturated with the fact that the free agent deadline on July 31st is a "make a deal or forever hold your peace" deadline for the organization. They have a new ballpark and they stole the division last year and are the favorites this year. Signing Mauer would basically give the direction for this decade. Yet, they haven't done it. They haven't done it yet and if they don't do it by July 31st they lose the safety net of compensation. Mauer will become unrestricted sometime in November and then he's moves in open water. At least if they trade him before 7/31, they get something back. Prospects, a few good players... whatever. If he signs as an unrestricted FA, they get nothing.

So basically the Twins have a choice.
Door #1: Resign Mauer longterm and expensively
Door #2: Trade him in late July to get some prospects
or Door #3: Stall too long and allow for the Yankees to fly a helicopter to the Mauer Estate and dump money on his roof until he's the starting catcher who replaces Jorge Posada in Yankee Stadium (OMG THAT MAKES SO MUCH SENZZZZ!!!).

My prediction: Door #3.

Well good night folks and Red, go wash your hands and keyboard after reading this.