By Slate Quicksilver
Welcome to a new a weekly game show we'll be doing here at Potluck Sports. I am your host, Slate Quicksilver, and this is Good, Bad or Inconsistent? Every week our crack team of researchers and statisticians who all are graduates from Ivy League Schools. Unfortunately today we are down one researcher: Cole. Cole is attending the birth of his second child. Cole's first child is already 4, but you'd never guess seeing as how it already has hacked into the CIA's supercomputers three times this year. The new child has an IQ of 183. That's 2 points higher than Cole's!
(pause for laughter)
Anyway, our researchers and statisticians will look at all sports, look at one sport in particular each week and then figure out if certain teams are: Good, Bad or Inconsistent!
So, with that being said let's play Good, Bad or Inconsistent!
This week's sport: College Football!
Contestant #1, Ole Miss, are you ready?
In 2008, Ole Miss was an enigma wrapped in a mystery with a spicy yet sweet quandary sauce evenly poured on top. They started 2-2, even losing to Vandy, before going to the Swamp and (ANGER, CURSE WORDS AND BLOODRAGE POUR FROM THE SKY) thanks to stuffing them on 4th and (KICKS 35 KITTENS) UF's only loss of 2008 (SCREAMS UNTIL VOCAL CHORDS EXPLODE). Houston Nutt's team celebrated that by losing two games in a row. Despite being 3-4 and oddly ordinary, Ole Miss decided to win 6 games in a row with a nightcap of crushing TTech in the Cotton Bowl.
Despite losing two first round picks to the draft on both sides of the line, Ole Miss was ranked #8 in the 2009 preseason polls. Winning their first two games by a total of 77 points certainly seemed to validate that, and they rose to #4. But then on a Thursday night they traveled to South Carolina. Turns out, they left their offense back in Oxford. Jevan Snead put up miserable numbers and the Gamecocks did just enough to win. Ole Miss fell sharply from #4 to #21, a remarkable fall from grace despite losing to a team that isn't all that bad.
After conferring with each other, several stats programs, a historical college football almanac and a magic 8 ball, our team is back with the results.
So, Ole Miss, are you Good, Bad or Inconsistent?
Ole Miss you are: BAD!
It's easy to say I told you so, so I will. Look, Ole Miss lost a good deal of talent. Yes, they brought in a good recruiting class. Yes, Houston Nutt can coach a bit. But Ole Miss did not in any universe amongst the infinite multiverse deserve a #4 ranking. Houston Nutt, first and foremost, loses games he should never lose and just as much, wins games he should never win. We don't know what it is, but it just happens. Perhaps it's his offensive scheming. At Arkansas, the offense was absolutely sold on running the ball with Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, no matter what. In that situation, passing the ball became a vague nuance the offense sometimes did resulting in amazing stats like this: Casey Dick 3/17 29 yards 1 TD 1 INT. No, he was not hurt in that game. That is what happens in a Houston Nutt offense. Yes, one thing went well in that game... the running game. But the passing game was horrendous. But against South Carolina, nothing worked. It's very clear that their offense can go from red hot to absolute zero on a week to week basis.
Contestant #2, California, are you ready?
In 2008, California was a solid team with an amazing runningback and a solid defense. They lost two puzzling games against Arizona and Maryland, but their other two loses were to USC and Oregon State. Jahvid Best entered the scene as the most electifying pure RB in the country. Yet they were limited by inconsistent, at best, QB play. Winning the "Whatever Bowl is in San Francisco" Bowl over Miami was the capstone to a successful season and showing that they had a clear direction for the program. Jeff Tedford, after years of bleh-ness, seemed to have things figured out. They were primed for the big show to challenge Oregon for #2 in the Pac10 and maybe eve USC.
In 2009, California started off like they were better than the preseason #12 ranking. They crushed Maryland in Week 1, blew out a D2 school Eastern Washington and then beat down Minnesota in the first game played at U of Minny's new house. In those games, RB Jahvid Best moved up an echelon from "Best running back in America" to "Hyperback." He scored all 5 TDs against Minnesota. No one hits a crease like Best. But then they went to Oregon. Oregon, though they beat Purdue and Utah at home, were still a bit shellshocked from their loss in the opener to Boise State (insert LaGarrette Blount punching joke here). Marching into Autzen Stadium ranked #6, Cal looked like winning was an inevitability. 4 LONG hours later for the Golden Bears, they were down 39. Oregon contained Best and the Oregon offense finally remembered in which direction the endzone was located.
He can outrun linebackers, safeties and even cornerbacks. But Jahvid Best can't outrun indigestion.
After conferring with each other, several stats programs, a historical college football almanac and a magic 8 ball, our team is back with the results.
So, California, are you Good, Bad or Inconsistent?
California you are: Inconsistent!
When you have a running game like they do, you can't be bad. Being steamcleaned by Oregon was bad, maybe even embarrassing, but Oregon was underrated. That week 1 loss plus losing their best runningback really tempered the Ducks' momentum. Take away that loss and Oregon would have been a fringe Top 10 team. It can be reasonably inferred that Cal would not have fallen to 24. Now Cal gets to host USC in a huge game. All the normal juggernauts of the Pac10 have one loss. Neither USC nor Cal can take another loss. That makes this upcoming game a make or break affair.
Sidenote:
The drop of 18 places (for both Ole Miss and Cal) is the farthest I have ever seen. Even when the super overrated #2 USF team in 2007 lost to unranked Rutgers, they only fell about 10 slots. I am at a loss for words why these two team fell as much as they did. It is an alarming trend to see team fluctuate as much as they have. Losing one game deserves a fall in the rankings, but in these days with the horrid BCS system wherein polls matter, seeing teams free fall from one loss (in the case of Ole Miss... 6 lousy points) is telling. It either means they were heavily overrated when they lost (meaning they shouldn't be there and thus the polls were wrong) or there is a heavy schism in pollsters. More on that wacky conspiracy later.
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