The Race to the Bottom: Handicapping the NFL's #1 Pick

Posted by Iroquois Plisken

Possibly more intriguing than the race to the NFL Championship (after all, who likes rooting for winners?) is the race to the bottom in a draft without the super-marketable name. With the exception of Red, your PLS staffers cheer for separate teams who, for lack of a better term, stink (although one of them has made a fortuitous turnaround ever since they switched back to the defense for which they possessed the personnel). With that in mind, let's take a gander at the Race for the Bottom and, if they win, which (projected) member of the draft should be taken, in this observer's view.

Detroit Lions - Fresh off of their winless season, the Lions proceeded to take Matthew Stafford. Having watched Mr. Stafford for many years, it is this author's opinion that Stafford is the $1M arm/$1 head mold that has plagued such highly regarded QBs in the past. At least with Stafford, you know what you're going to get: about a 55% completion rate, 2:1 TD/INT ratio, and about 3500 yards. If you can live with that, great. Know, however, that Stafford makes knuckleheaded decisions on the reg, and at times, it doesn't seem like he cares. At least his taste in women improved since he went to the NFL. (I can't for the life of me find them, but he got photographed with some not-so-great women at UGA. Having visited UGA, I saw multiple better options in one bar alone, and I wasn't the starting QB.)

The Lions have some decent offensive talent and would likely look to shore up the line. Assuming they get the #1 pick, I would think they target Ndamukong Suh.

Odds of #1 pick: 3:1

St. Louis Rams - You know you're teams in deep trouble when it turns to Kyle Boller for a while. The Jeff Tedford QB lineage has produced some truly horrendous QB play: Akili Smith, John Joseph Harrington (both of whom were picked third overall), Boller, AJ Feeley, and Trent Dilfer (at least he won a Super Bowl!). The jury's still out on Aaron Rodgers, who is a monster fantasy football force and a decent enough QB in the league as well, but I'm more inclined to say that Rodgers is the Good Ship Lollipop in the vast Sea of Tedford Failure. It seems more to me that Tedford can coach QBs up to the collegiate ceiling, make them look good enough to get drafted, and get them set for life with an NFL contract.

Ironically, after a discussion of awful QBs, the Rams will likely look to a QB themselves in the draft, though I think their projected pick of Sam Bradford could certainly do better than all of the above jokers combined.

Odds of #1 pick: 5:1 (it increased drastically after that stinkbomb of a performance that Cutler threw up, pun and visual imagery intended, last night)

Cleveland Browns - The real key to this Race to the Bottom is the Browns. They have a couple of upcoming Futility Bowls (@DET, @KC, OAK), which could easily go in favor of any of the teams playing. If Cleveland rattles off three wins there, look out! A "We can build on this!" season awaits! If they lose, however, they're almost surely the RttB winner, as their remaining schedule is quite ghastly.

If Cleveland wins, like most folks think, I would expect them to, honestly, swap the pick lower. That's not really the point of this column, so I'll go out on a limb and have them take the premier play-maker in the highest parts of the draft: Eric Berry, aka the New Ed Reed.

Odds of #1 pick: 1.5:1

Kansas City Chiefs - I don't except them to actually contend for the #1 pick. Arrowhead Stadium is still a tough place to play in December, and (not surprisingly) they have a couple of games they can win there (BUF, CLE) and a game that will probably be somewhat hotly contested (DEN). Therefore, I will save the space on the chart.

Should the improbably happen, KC should roll with Russell Okung, get a fairly local product and the OL solidifed, or Eric Berry.

Odds of #1 pick: 20:1

Oakland Raiders: Amazing that they already have two (!) wins. Since they face CLE in one of those aforementioned Futility Bowls, three wins will likely be too much to keep them from the #1 pick. Too bad. I was really waiting to see how badly Al Davis would mess this up.

I think this may be my favorite projection, because I could put anyone down, and most folks would be likely to believe me. Like CLE, I would expect Oakland to trade down and perhaps go after Joe Haden. Assuming that doesn't happen, Al Davis shocks the world and chooses this guy #1 overall. Just saying.

Odds of #1 pick: 10:1

Tampa Bay Bucs: All snide criticism aside, Tampa has a pretty brutal schedule from here on out. They face the Saints twice, Atlanta twice, the Jets (a Rex Ryan defense against a rookie QB and another very inexperienced, though mobile, QB? Count me in!), and travel @SEA in the winter. That's rough for a team whose highlight has been offensive futility. As someone who has previously been vocal about his dislike of Josh Freeman, there is at least a little to like about the future of the team, though I would strongly caution that Freeman's game last week was likely a mirage and provides quite a bit of false hope. He was given multiple short fields and his defense/ST scored twice for him. Not counting on those fortuitous instances here on out, Tampa would have lost the game by (at least) 4, and would have actually made Freeman's numbers look better, while keeping public perception of the team the same.

TB actually has the second best odds of making the #1 overall pick, and I'm fairly certain they'd look for a Defensive Lineman. Ndamukong Suh would be the favorite, but in order to throw another name into the column, why not Carlos Dunlap? He is a big, powerful DE who would pair great next to or opposite Roy Miller at DT, who is serviceable and would likely be made better next to a talented DE.

Odds of #1 pick: 2:1